If you start with a $1000 bankroll, what should be your dollar amount for units per game? 5%? Just would like some opinions. Also any good advice on Money Management would be appreciated. I am not very disciplined and have lost my fair share in every aspect of gambling, looking to start having a little fun and KEEPING MY BANKROLL!! Thanks
I have asked the same question myself several times and I think the following guidelines are acceptable.
1. use 2% of your starting bankroll as your bet amount
2. stay with that amount untill your bankroll has increased (or heaven forbid dereased) by 50%
3. recalculate your standard bet size after a major bankroll change (see 2.)
1. use 2% of your starting bankroll as your bet amount
2. stay with that amount untill your bankroll has increased (or heaven forbid dereased) by 50%
3. recalculate your standard bet size after a major bankroll change (see 2.)
TheTom&DaveShow said:
Now-deceased Sports Newsletter writer, Huey Mahl, used to have some interesting "money management" discussions in his newsletter...
IT SEEMS THINGS COMES DOWN TO:
1)Proficiency at picking winners
2)Type of payoff(even money??... odds?)
3)House vigorish(-110???...-107....-105)
So if one is 57% proficient and betting into an even-money line(10/11)...then one would bet 9.7% of one's bankroll on each single nonconcommitant event....
Obviously one must be an overall winner(52.38% wins against the -110 line) for "money management" to come into play
HERE ARE SOME OTHER "OPTIMAL BETTING AMOUNTS" VALUES FOR RELATIVE WINNING PERCENTAGES AGAINST THE -110 LINE
52.38% WINNERS...................... O% OF BANKROLL
55%....................................... 5.5%
57%....................................... 9.7%
60%....................................... 16%
I'M NEW TO POSTING SO if I get some of this info wrong, I'd appreciate it if the more experienced posters would let me know....
...I'd rather my pride got injured AS OPPOSED TO another individual's bankroll getting injured:drink:
yeah, I agree.
It all depends what your true win rate is, what kind of plays you bet on (longshot moneylines, or spread bets), and what amount of risk of ruin you are willing to accept.
If we assume that you will always be betting $55 to win $50 and that this is the minimum bet allowed (so you can't move down if you are on a losing streak) then the risk of ruin if you pick 55% correct (which is +$2.75 EV per bet, a 5% roi) and if you start with $1000 is 14.24%. That's why most people suggest betting 2% or even 1% of your bankroll rather than the 5% you were suggesting. If we move to $2500 bankroll then the risk of ruin falls to about 0.7%. If we move to a $5000 bankroll then the risk of ruin falls to about 0.005%. Remember that this is with a 55% correct picks against the spread. If you do better than that then your ror is overestimated above. If you do worse than that then your ror is underestimated above (and if you pick less than 52.39% then optimal bet amount is 0% of bankroll). It is much more likely that you will do worse than 55% than better than 55%.
It all depends what your true win rate is, what kind of plays you bet on (longshot moneylines, or spread bets), and what amount of risk of ruin you are willing to accept.
If we assume that you will always be betting $55 to win $50 and that this is the minimum bet allowed (so you can't move down if you are on a losing streak) then the risk of ruin if you pick 55% correct (which is +$2.75 EV per bet, a 5% roi) and if you start with $1000 is 14.24%. That's why most people suggest betting 2% or even 1% of your bankroll rather than the 5% you were suggesting. If we move to $2500 bankroll then the risk of ruin falls to about 0.7%. If we move to a $5000 bankroll then the risk of ruin falls to about 0.005%. Remember that this is with a 55% correct picks against the spread. If you do better than that then your ror is overestimated above. If you do worse than that then your ror is underestimated above (and if you pick less than 52.39% then optimal bet amount is 0% of bankroll). It is much more likely that you will do worse than 55% than better than 55%.
With a $1000 starting bankroll I would use 2% or $20 for a unit. Than keep that unit size until your bankroll increases to $1500 or decreases to $800. Than reconfigure your unit size.
The thing you will realize vary quickly is that money management has almost as much to do with having a winning season as picking winners does. I personally don't vary my units much. For example you will see many people say that this game is a 3 or 5 unit play. I play pretty much every game at 2% of my bankroll regardless of how much I like the game. I will go as high as to bet 2 units on a game but that is rare. usually every game I bet is for 1 unit.
The thing you will realize vary quickly is that money management has almost as much to do with having a winning season as picking winners does. I personally don't vary my units much. For example you will see many people say that this game is a 3 or 5 unit play. I play pretty much every game at 2% of my bankroll regardless of how much I like the game. I will go as high as to bet 2 units on a game but that is rare. usually every game I bet is for 1 unit.
